Today is the NFL draft. I don't understand why people love it so much, and all the hype it generates. It's a crap shoot, plain and simple (here's my first rant on the subject from 2011).How can anybody really compare an offensive linebacker from Buffalo with a wide receiver from Clemson? It's impossible to know now who will be the better pro. I have no clue whatsoever, and neither do people who've done 1000 times more research than me.
Yet somehow as the draft approaches it's the dominant sports news story every day, all day. Mock drafts are all anybody wants to talk about. Paid experts work like crazy on their latest prognostications, and the media discusses them as if they have actually value.
But they don't. I don't care who it is telling you how it's going to be, it's all just a guess. Via awfulannouncing.com, here's a look at how close (or not) some of last year's first round mock drafts came to reality:
Mike Mayock, NFL Network: 27/32 players selected, 8 slotted correctly.
Todd McShay, ESPN: 27/32 players selected, 4 slotted correctly.
Mel Kiper, ESPN: 26/32 players selected, 6 slotted correctly.
Peter Schrager, Fox Sports: 26/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly.
Mike Florio, PFT: 25/32 players selected, 6 slotted correctly.
Doug Farrar, Yahoo: 25/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly.
Gil Brandt, NFL.com: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly.
Peter King, NFL.com: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly.
Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: 24/32 players selected, 1 slotted correctly.
Pete Prisco, CBS: 23/32 players selected, 2 slotted correctly.
The best guy got 25% right, and many "experts" accurately picked just 1 of 32 selections. As inexact a science as it is, why do we care to listen to it? Especially 24/7 for a week straight...
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