Porcellometer rises, Cy Young Award is his to lose

Rick Porcello went the distance last night for his 21st victory of the season, and he only needed 89 pitches (65 for strikes) to do it--the fewest thrown by any MLB pitcher this year in a nine-inning complete game.  Porcello didn't walk a batter and he had just one three-ball count.  It was his 11th consecutive start in which he lasted at least seven innings and surrendered three or fewer earned runs.  Only two Red Sox players have ever done that before:

Longest streak of 7+ IP, 3 or fewer runs - Red Sox
Rick Porcello 2016
Pedro Martínez 2000
Cy Young 1904

11 starts each
(via @eliassports)

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 20, 2016

Not bad company for Porcello, who leads the American League in wins (21), WHIP (0.98) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.0).  He's tied for second behind teammate David Price in innings pitched (210.2) and has surrendered a total of just 29 walks through his 31 starts (73 AL pitchers have walked more batters than he has).  Porcello is also third in ERA (3.08) and ninth in strikeouts (174).

With only two starts remaining, the Cy Young is his to lose, even if Zach Britton never blows a save this year (currently 45-for-45).  Up from 71 percent last week, the Porcellometer now stands at 84 percent.

Plus, you can't help but love the reaction yesterday when Manny Machado accused Porcello of throwing at him with a 2-0 lead, a perfect game going and Mark Trumbo, who's 43 homers lead the majors, on deck (parental advisory, explicit language):

"Why would I wanna hit you with that motherfucker coming up? Use your fucking head." https://t.co/710ugdAy61

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) September 20, 2016

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Porcellometer update: Cy Young odds increase despite loss (his first this year at Fenway)

Rick Porcello suffered his first home defeat of the season last night.  However, his Cy Young chances actually increased in the process and the totally subjective Porcellometer rose from 64 percent to 71 percent.  Here's why: Porcello's win-loss record is not an issue, it's far and away the best in the league.  However, with his eight-inning, four-hit, one-run, zero-walk performance yesterday, he now owns the AL's best WHIP (1.00) and his ERA dropped from 3.21 to 3.12.

Multiple people have mentioned that I'm ignoring Orioles closer Zach Britton (0.83 WHIP, 0.61 ERA) who shut down the Red Sox yesterday for his 43rd save of the season--in 43 opportunities.  While zero blown saves is extremely impressive, it's incredibly hard to justify giving the Cy Young Award to someone who's thrown only 59.1 innings (just 29 percent of Porcello's total).  Also, consider this: Britton has yielded 18 walks in those 59.1 innings, while Porcello has walked just 29 batters over his 201.2 innings.


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Introducing the [Rick] Porcellometer

For any loyal readers who remember the Celtics Tankometer in 2014, or the [Tim] Tebometer from 2011, I now give you the Porcellometer.

Pronounce it pour-sell-ah-met-er, like thermometer (not Porcello-meter).  I've created it to portray my best guess at Rick Porcello's odds of winning the American League Cy Young.  It's not a prediction of how likely I think he is to get the award, but rather what I believe his chances would be if it was handed out today--which in the first-ever addition of the Porcellometer is 64 percent.

It's a four-horse race at the moment (see above ESPN screenshot), with the main thing Porcello has working against him being his low strikeout total.  However, he's also walked so few batters (an average of exactly one per start) that he still owns the best strikeout/walk ratio in the league.  Combined with having four more wins than any of the other contenders, that makes him the clear favorite.

Porcello goes for an MLB-best 21st victory tonight against the Orioles.


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Update: It's now a 4-man race for AL Cy Young Award (with Rick Porcello in the thick of it)

Yesterday, I wrote about Rick Porcello's chances to win the American League Cy Young Award.  At the time there were five worthy candidates.  But after getting rocked for seven earned runs in 1.2 innings last night, Cole Hamels (who's ERA jumped from 2.91 to 3.25) is currently out of the running.  Justin Verlander and Chris Sale both received no-decisions in their head-to-head matchup Monday, leaving the top four candidates with the following numbers:

Screenshot from ESPN.com

Porcello, Verlander, Sale and Corey Kluber now own the four best WHIPs in the AL.  They also have very similar ERAs, all among the top 10.  The major difference in Porcello's case is that he has significantly fewer strikeouts than the rest.  However, the Red Sox hurler also owns four more wins and four fewer losses than any of the other contenders.  I'm fully aware that win-loss record can be a terrible stat to measure by, but that is an enormous difference (and Porcello's other numbers are good too).

With just 4-5 starts remaining for each guy, the odds are very good that Porcello will be the league's only 20-game winner (J.A. Happ also has 17 victories, but is winless in his last three outings).


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Can Rick Porcello win the Cy Young Award?

After Saturday's victory in Oakland, Rick Porcello is now 19-3.  No one else in baseball has more than 17 wins.  Porcello's 3.23 ERA is 10th in the American League, but his 1.02 WHIP is tied for second.  And while his 154 strikeouts are on the low end (tied for 11th) for a Cy Young candidate, Porcello's 186.2 innings pitched rank third in the AL behind teammate David Price (190.2) and former teammate Justin Verlander (188).

Verlander (14-7) might be the leading contender at the moment with an AL-best 0.99 WHIP and 198 strikeouts (second), but his 3.30 ERA is worse than Porcello's.  Chris Sale (15-7) also has a strong case with a 3.10 ERA (seventh), a 1.02 WHIP (second, tied) and 185 strikeouts (fifth).

Here's how the top five candidates stack up:

Rick Porcello: 19-3, 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 154 K, 186.2 IP
Justin Verlander: 14-7, 3.30 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 198 K, 188 IP
Chris Sale: 15-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 185 K, 185.2 IP
Corey Kluber: 15-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 189 K, 183.2 IP
Cole Hamels: 14-4, 2.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 171 K, 173 IP

Porcello likely has five starts remaining.  If he wins three of them and gets to 22 victories without anyone else in the league reaching 20, it'll be hard to argue against him.



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