Thursday, September 15, 2016

Porcellometer update: Cy Young odds increase despite loss (his first this year at Fenway)

Rick Porcello suffered his first home defeat of the season last night.  However, his Cy Young chances actually increased in the process and the totally subjective Porcellometer rose from 64 percent to 71 percent.  Here's why: Porcello's win-loss record is not an issue, it's far and away the best in the league.  However, with his eight-inning, four-hit, one-run, zero-walk performance yesterday, he now owns the AL's best WHIP (1.00) and his ERA dropped from 3.21 to 3.12.

Multiple people have mentioned that I'm ignoring Orioles closer Zach Britton (0.83 WHIP, 0.61 ERA) who shut down the Red Sox yesterday for his 43rd save of the season--in 43 opportunities.  While zero blown saves is extremely impressive, it's incredibly hard to justify giving the Cy Young Award to someone who's thrown only 59.1 innings (just 29 percent of Porcello's total).  Also, consider this: Britton has yielded 18 walks in those 59.1 innings, while Porcello has walked just 29 batters over his 201.2 innings.

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