Monday, November 28, 2011

The streak is broken... kind of.

Yesterday, after 6 straight failed attempts, Tim Tebow finally completed half of his passes in a game; exactly half.  With his 9-18 showing, the Tebometer is now rising for the first time.  His career completion rate is back to 47.1%, up from 46.9% last week.  At some point he is going to have to complete more than half of his passes in order to get to 50% though.

Amazingly Denver was able to pull off another victory while scoring fewer than 19 points, and I maintain my stance that they have little to do with Tebow.  I think the wins are mostly a product of 2 things: good defense, and coincidence.  That's right coincidence.  It's a fairly common explanation in sports that is rarely given enough credit.  One of these days somebody is going to put up 30-some points on the Broncos and make the "magic" go away.

Even during what is rapidly becoming known as "Tebow Time," on the game winning drive, he didn't do much: 0-1 passing and 3 rushes for 14 yards.  It was the 24 yard run from McGahee that won the game.  Last week I contrasted Tebow's passing rate with Tom Brady's.  Obviously that wasn't fair, so this week I'll compare their rushing numbers:

- Tebow ran for 67 yards yesterday, but he also carried the ball 22 times (the most by any QB in a single NFL game since 1950.  Yeah, 1950.  That's the kind of football Denver is playing), which works out to only 3 yards per rush.
- the fleet footed Brady had 5 rushes for 28 yards yesterday; 5.6 yards per carry.  Hmm...

And while we're on the subject of Brady, he's now thrown for 3,627 yards through 11 games this year, an average of 330 yards per game.  That means he only needs 292 yards a game for the last 5 weeks in order to break Dan Marino's all time single season record of 5,084.  Although to be fair, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are also on pace to challenge Marino's '84 season.

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