Saturday, July 9, 2016

Chances are the Warriors with Durant will actually be worse than last year (at least in the regular season)

With Kevin Durant joining the Warriors, the general response/consensus is that Golden State will now be an unbeatable super-team:

Kind of like playing with the Blackhawks in NHL '94, right Isaiah?

(How about the Celtics, by the way?)

I do think the Warriors should be overwhelming title favorites in 2016-17.  But, the thing everybody is forgetting is that they were the best team ever this past regular season--there really isn't much room for improvement.

Despite the talent upgrade, Golden State is unlikely to win as many games next year as it did in 2015-16.  It just goes against the laws of probability for the all-time NBA wins record to be broken in back-to-back seasons.  Guys will get hurt and stars will be rested.  The Warriors may also be so good that they'll lose motivation from time to time.

Most importantly, ever opponent on their schedule will be giving its best shot on a nightly basis.  Isaiah Thomas said this today:

Vegas agrees with me:

I honestly believe 5/1 odds (equivalent to +500) are too good--I'd put Golden State's chances at going 74-8 or better below 10 percent.

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