Thursday, September 8, 2011

Bets I would make if I were a gambler

With the NFL season about to start, and MLB headed for the playoffs, here are a couple "futures" bets that I like.  Even though I pretty much never actually gamble, I think futures are cool because you can get really long odds that make it worth winning even if you only bet a small amount of money.  And underdogs/longshots are always fun to root for anyway.

In case you haven't noticed, in MLB all the playoff spots are practically locked up already.  And here's a little secret about the MLB playoffs: the best team usually doesn't win.  Three out of five and four out of seven game series are such small samples in baseball that upsets happen all the time.  Because of that the playoffs are pretty much random, every team in has almost an equal chance to win.  Basically every team should have roughly 8-1 odds to win the world series.  The Diamondbacks are 15-1 right now.  Good bet.  And they are 13-2 to win the NL, which I also like.  Really anyone besides Philly (Atlanta, Arizona, or Milwaukee) to win the NL is a good bet, since they are such overwhelming favorites.

In the NFL I really like Tampa at 30-1 to win the Superbowl.  Last year they went 10-6 and should have made the playoffs.  They have a young exciting QB in Josh Freeman who makes plays and wins games.  But the odds suggest they are a middle of the road team.  I don't think they actually will win the whole thing, but at 30-1 they're a bargain.

And if you're willing to bet against your own team, I also have a method to guarantee you always win at sports gambling.

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