Monday, December 16, 2013

Another Patriots game decided by randomness, which now accounts for 79% of their season

NOT a game winner... this time.
Watching Tom Brady try five times (an offside penalty gave them an extra chance) unsuccessfully to get the ball in the end zone in the final seconds yesterday, it was painfully obvious how much he could have used Rob Gronkowski.  But, if Danny Amendola makes that grab the Patriots still win anyway (off topic, Amendola had 10 catches for 131 yards this week, how did Wes Welker do?).  Or if they get a pass interference penalty on that throw to Michael Hoomanawanui (that could just as easily have been called as the one last week vs Cleveland) they win as well.

New England's last 5 games have been decided by 4 points or less, as have 9 of the 14 they've played all season.  Two more were within a touchdown, meaning 11 of 14 have been one score games; 79% of their outcomes could have changed had one play per contest happened/been officiated differently.  

The Pats (10-4) have had three relatively easy victories this year (23-3 vs Tampa, 27-17 vs Miami, and 55-31 vs Pittsburgh), with all of them coming at home.  For the season they are 7-4 in close games, 4-0 at home, and 3-4 on the road.  But the good news is that in each of their four losses, they've had a chance to win on their final possession.

If the Patriots keep taking care of business at home and giving themselves an opportunity at the end on the road, maybe they'll make the play/get the call or maybe they won't, but can you really ask for anything more?

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