I picked Oklahoma to win the NCAA tournament in all of my brackets because they have the best player in the country, Buddy Hield. I've had a "Dwyane Wade at Marquette in 2003" feeling about Hield for a while now (Wade averaged 21.8 points per game while carring his No. 3 seed Golden Eagles to the Final Four), and that's why I expect him to be an excellent NBA player.
Don't guys who dominate the NCAA tournament tend to have success on the next level? I was going to do a bit of research into this, but ESPN's His & Hers (which fittingly used to be called Numbers Never Lie) did it for me:
Another frame of reference: Take a look back at the 2011 draft when I couldn't believe Kemba Walker dropped to ninth.