Friday, March 30, 2012

20 Consecutive Winning Seasons in Boston?!?

With the Bruins on the verge of wrapping up a division title, and assuming the Celtics don't completely implode and close out the year 5-11 or worse, this will mark the twentieth straight season that Boston's four major sports teams have had winning records.  I made a note of this back in October, the last local squad to finish under .500 was the '06-'07 Celtics.  The odds against such a streak lasting this long are astronomical.  If you assume every team has a 50-50 chance each year to win more games than it loses, the likelihood of this happening is exactly 1,048,576 to 1.

But, we're pretty cocky about our sports in this town.  Maybe for reasons such as higher payrolls, smarter management, superior fans, Tom Brady, etc, Boston is simply better than average.  Hypothetically, even if all of our teams are somehow so good that they start each season with a 75% chance of having a winning record, the odds of 20 in a row are still roughly 315/1.  According to Vegas the Minnesota Timberwolves (currently under .500 and in 11th place in the Western Conference) have a better chance than that to win the NBA title this year.

My gut feeling is that this is probably the greatest five year run any city has ever had.  Again, this is why needs a stats team, but I can't imagine another four sport city has ever gone this long without a single losing season.  If you have an idea how to figure this out, please let me know!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Back to homepage