Showing posts with label regression to the mean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label regression to the mean. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

If you believe in run differential, the Red Sox are much better than the Orioles

The Red Sox (65-52) head to Baltimore tonight to face the Orioles (66-51) with first place in the American League East on the line (Toronto is also tied for first at 67-52).

Statistically speaking, it shouldn't be this way.  Boston is a better team than Baltimore--a lot better, in fact.  For the season, the Sox have outscored their opponents by 104 runs (tied with Cleveland for first in the American League), an average of 0.89 per game.  By comparison, the O's have only plated 38 more runs than their opposition (sixth in the AL) an average of 0.32 per game.  The Red Sox's average margin of victory is nearly triple what Baltimore's is, and more than half a run per game higher.  Considering AL teams are averaging 4.5 total runs per game this season, a half-run difference in margin of victory is an enormous amount.

Here's a quick NBA comparison: The Celtics went 48-34 last year while outscoring their opponents by 3.2 points per game.  The NBA-champion Cavaliers (57-25) won by 6.0 PPG.  In theory, the gap between the Red Sox and Orioles is greater than the one between the Cavs and Celtics.

Baltimore should fade in the AL East race, with Boston battling the Blue Jays (who are +87 in total runs, 0.73 per game) for the division title.


Monday, December 29, 2014

Is it possible none of the top 7 teams in the NBA are championship contenders?

Last week I wrote an article for the "Stat Central" feature I do on HoopsHabit.com called What Each NBA Title Contender Needs For Christmas.  The hard part wasn't trying to find an area for each elite team to improve in, the difficulty was determining who the contenders are.

The top three teams in the East are Toronto, Atlanta and Washington.  But the overwhelming favorites in the conference are No. 4 Chicago and No. 5 Cleveland.

In the West it's even weirder.  Based on preseason odds, the three most likely championship candidates are San Antonio, the L.A. Clippers and Oklahoma City.  The Clippers are sixth in the Western Conference, the Spurs are seventh and the Thunder are 10th (still recovering from injuries to All-Stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant).  There's a very good chance everybody's preseason favorites out west will finish with the worst three playoff seeds in the conference.

Not only that, but in the fifth spot at the moment is Dallas, who just made a huge move to acquire Rajon Rondo.  The postseason is still a long way off, but we could end up with a scenario where seeds 1-4 (currently Golden State, Portland, Memphis and Houston) all lose in the first round to seeds 5-8.

At the moment the team with the best record in the NBA, the 24-5 Warriors, has only slightly better odds to win the title (pictured) than the 15-17 Thunder.

 

Monday, September 8, 2014

Ridiculously improbable U.S. Open final tonight

Defending U.S. Open champion Rafael Nadal (ranked No. 2 in the world) pulled out of the tournament a week before it started due to a wrist injury.  World No. 1 Novak Djokovic lost in one semifinal to 10th seeded Kei Nishikori of Japan.  No. 3 Roger Federer fell to Croatia's Marin Cilic (seeded 14th) in the other.

It's first time in nearly 10 years, since January of 2005 when Marat Safin defeated Lleyton Hewitt to win the Australian Open, that a final of one of the four Grand Slam events doesn't include Nadal, Djokovic or Federer (during a stretch from 2005-2012, one of those three guys won 29 of the 30 Grand Slams played).

The matchup of double-digit seeds or higher in a major final is also happening for the first time since the French Open in 2002, when unseeded Albert Costa knocked off 11th seed Juan Carlos Ferrero.  Not only that, but Nishikori is the first ever Asian-born player to reach a Grand Slam final.

According to ESPN, a prominent tennis betting outlet said it didn't even post odds for a Nishikori-Cilic final, but were it listed it would have been around 5000-1.


Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Some numbers behind the Red Sox becoming the hottest team in baseball

On July 9, the 39-51 Red Sox trailed the White Sox 4-0 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning.  Boston rallied for 3 runs in the 8th, 2 in the 9th (partially inspired by my tweet?), and beat Chicago 5-4.

The Sox have only lost once since (an annoying 3-2 defeat in Houston in which Boston actually pounded out 13 hits), and now sit at 47-52.  Winning 5 straight and 8 of 9 makes the Red Sox baseball's hottest team (although their fellow AL East basement dwellers down in Tampa have also won 5 in a row and 16 of 21, keeping the entire division just 8 games apart; things could get very interesting down the stretch).

The Boston outfield, which was so pathetic at the plate for much of the year, has suddenly come alive (more on this in the days ahead).  In each of the past two games all three Sox starting outfielders have posted at least two hits.

Yesterday the Red Sox plated 14 runs in just 5 innings.  Twice this season Boston went 7 full games without even scoring a total of 14 runs (May 16-23 and June 15-21).

The hot streak directly coincides with the release of catcher A.J. Pierzynski and the promotion of Christian Vazquez from Pawtucket.  Boston is undefeated (5-0) in games in which Vazquez has played.


Tuesday, May 27, 2014

What happened to the Clay Buchholz from a year ago?

I wish that ugly uniform was to blame...
Clay Buchholz just made his 10th start of the season yesterday.  It wasn't good, and most of his other trips to the mound so far haven't been either.  After allowing 6 earned runs (for the 4th time already this year) Buchholz's ERA now sits at 7.02, his WHIP at 1.98.  He's basically the polar opposite of what he was at this point last season, when he had a 1.73 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

Buchholz gave up 2 or fewer runs in 9 of his first 10 starts in 2013 (and on that one occasion it was still only 4).  This year he's surrendered 3 or more in 9 of 10 outings.

Last season Buchholz went at least 7 innings in each of his first 10 starts.  This year he's accomplished that feat only once, and it was exactly 7 innings at that.

The Red Sox went 9-1 when Buchholz pitched to this point last season, this year they are just 4-6.  That 5-game difference would improve their record from 21-29 to 26-24, and have Boston only 3 games out of 1st place.


Thursday, April 24, 2014

The difference between first place and last place in the AL East? One run.

The Yankees currently sit atop the American League East with a 12-9 record.  Boston is last at 10-12.  If the narrow 2.5 game margin across the division isn't enough to temper any early-season concerns you might have about the Red Sox, consider this:

Both Boston and New York have allowed exactly 92 runs so far (although the Sox have done it while playing one additional game), while the Yankees have scored just 85 times to the Red Sox's 84.

In a bizarre coincidence, every first place team in the AL to this point actually has a negative scoring differential:



Despite these non-discouraging numbers (you can't really call them encouraging), I'm honestly not expecting all that much out of Boston this year.  In 2012 everything went wrong and the Sox finished 69-93.  Last season everything went right and they won the World Series.  Chances are 2014 will be somewhere in between.  I don't think the starting pitching will be as good as it was a year ago (John Lackey and Clay Buchholz in particular), and the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury in the leadoff spot is already a glaring weakness.  I'm predicting a Red Sox win total in the low to mid-80s.

And for the record, I've though that since before the season began; check out this article I wrote for Yahoo Sports back in January: Have the Boston Red Sox Done Enough to Contend Again in 2014?

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

#1 seed Wichita State is more likely to lose in the first round than win the NCAA title

The 34-0 Wichita State Shockers have earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament out of the Missouri Valley Conference.  Off the top of your head, how many teams can you name in the Missouri Valley Conference?  Over the course of the season Wichita St. played a grand total of zero top 25 schools.  They did beat St. Louis who eventually became ranked, but wasn't at the time.

Last season I wrote that it was a joke for Gonzaga to be the #1 team in the country because of their terrible strength of schedule.  They promptly lost their second game of the tournament, oddly enough to Wichita St.  Well this year the Shockers are the overrated club from a bad conference set to take a tumble.  Many "experts" are picking them to lose to the Wildcats in round two, whether it be Kentucky or Kansas St.  I'm guessing that Kentucky would actually be favored vs Wichita State, and unheard of possibility for a #8 seed vs a #1.

If the Shockers make it to round three they'll likely have to play Louisville, currently ranked #5 in the AP poll.  Last season's champs though they deserved a #1 seed this year, but got handed a #4 because the new "American Athletic Conference" that they play in isn't very good either.  Should Wichita St. somehow make it to the Elite Eight they'll probably be matched up with Duke or Michigan, two other clubs that could have earned a #1 seed had they won their conference tournaments rather than lose in the title game.

It looks next to impossible for the Shockers to even get to the Final Four, let alone win two more games after that and take home the national championship.

Teams seeded #16 are 0-112 in 28 years of tournament play.  A #1 has never lost in the first round, but it's going to happen someday.  Do I think the California Polytechnic State University Mustangs or the Texas Southern Tigers (the two squads have a play-in game Wednesday night for the right to face Wichita St. as the #16) will beat the Shockers?  No, but they'll have a better chance of winning that game than Wichita St. will of winning six.




Saturday, February 1, 2014

It's infuriating that yet another NBA team is going to pay Andrew Bynum to play basketball

This picture is too good not to bring back.
Here's the LucidSportsFan.com Andrew Bynum timeline over the past year:

February 26, 2013: Sixers coach Doug Collins really seems to hate Andrew Bynum

July 11, 2013: Is Andrew Bynum a sneaky basketball-hating genius?

September 18, 2013: The "sneaky basketball hating genius" is still up to his old tricks

December 28, 2013: "Andrew Bynum suspended by Cavs" is about the least surprising headline ever

January 7, 2014: The Bulls trade for Bynum, then immediately cut him to avoid paying the remainder of the ridiculous contract Cleveland signed him to (discussed in the July 11 link above).

Today: Indiana agrees to pay Bynum $1 million for the remainder of the season.

The Pacers are suckers.  Only bad things can come from this.  When you have the best record in the NBA, why on earth would you add a potential cancer to your team?  There's speculation that Indiana may have signed Bynum just to keep him from going to Miami, who doesn't have much in the way of centers to compete with Pacers All-Star Roy Hibbert in an all but guaranteed Eastern Conference Finals series this spring.   If that's the case, Indy shouldn't even allow Bynum to show up; just tell him to go home and forget about playing basketball.  He'd probably be much happier that way anyway.

As his last duty as NBA commissioner David Stern (who retired today, exactly 30 years after getting the job) should have forced Bynum to call it quits as well.


Monday, January 20, 2014

UMass basketball is ranked #12 in the country. I wish they were that good, but they're not

Derrick Gordon made the game-winning layup at GMU, 88-87.
When the UMass Minutemen first cracked the Top 25 in late November, I had a feeling they might be there for a while.  After knocking off then #19 New Mexico back on Nov. 22nd, they haven't played a ranked team since.  With Temple, Xavier, and Butler (yes, Butler was actually in their conference for a year, weird I know) now gone the Atlantic 10 isn't what it used to be.  As of right now UMass will only play one more Top 25 team this year, when they host current #19 Saint Louis in the regular season finale on March 8th.  

The thing about college basketball polls is that if you don't lose you tend to keep moving up, regardless of the quality of the wins or strength of schedule.  In three of the Minutemen's last four victories they trailed St. Joe's at home by 9 with under six minutes left, St. Bonaventure by 4 with less than two minutes remaining (as well as by 13 with nine minutes to go, also at home), and at George Mason by 5 with just :40 seconds left on the clock.  Most recently UMass led throughout the game in a 10 point victory over Elon, but if you can tell me where Elon is located or what name they go by I'll be very impressed (the answer to one of those two questions is Phoenix, but I'll leave it up to you to figure out which it is).  The 16-1 Minutemen have ridden their string of comeback victories all the way to #12 in the USA Today Coaches Poll (#13 AP), but should a bunch of close wins over mediocre (at best) competition really have them climbing that high in the rankings?

Kentucky (who's entire starting five is projected to be drafted by the NBA) dropped a two-point game in OT at Arkansas last week, and because of that fell to #14.  As much as I want it to be true, it's a bit of a pipe dream to believe UMass is actually better than Kentucky (or Duke, Ohio State, Michigan, and probably several other squads currently ranked lower).

The Minutemen visit my alma-mater Richmond Spiders (12-6, 2-1 A-10, another solid but unspectacular team) on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see UMass stumble.  They've been living on the edge for far too long.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Introducing the Boston Celtics "Tankometer"

To begin with, I'm a little annoyed with myself for not thinking of this sooner, it would've been great to have started it before the season.  But it's too late for that now, so I'll just do a quick little summary.

The job of the Celtics "Tankometer" is to measure my perceived level of how hard they (and by they I mean the players, coaches, and front office combined) are trying to win games.  At the Beginning of the year Boston would have ranked at 50%, taking a wait and see approach on trying to make the playoffs vs grabbing a top lottery pick.  When the Celtics were in first place at 12-14 I would have had them all the way up in the mid 90s, as a division title seemed well within reach.  Today I rate the C's at 47%, and dropping rapidly.

The Tankometer dial can be significantly moved by both on and off court occurrences.  For example, if it was used to measure the Bulls and Cavaliers, the recent Luol Deng trade would send Cleveland way up and Chicago way down.  For the Celtics, the Courtney Lee for Jerryd Bayless deal has some minor negative effects.  While I don't think it'll make much of a difference skill wise, it sets the precedent that Danny Ainge is plotting future minded moves (anyone could end up gone), and that probably weighs slightly on the psyche of the team.

As far as on court play goes, even worse than dropping 8 of their last 9 games may be the fact that Boston has allowed season high point totals (119 on Sunday in OKC, 129 last night in Denver) in consecutive contests.  No effort on defense is the #1 indication of a lack of interest in competing.  Given all this, 47% may seem rather high; but the C's are still just one game back of a playoff spot, and Rajon Rondo should be back fairly soon.

Also, it's pronounced Tank-ah-meh-ter, like speedometer or thermometer, not tank-o-me-ter.


RELATED: The Stiemsmometer, and the critically acclaimed Tebometer series.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

The Celtics have forgotten how to shoot, and at the worst possible time

In their last three outings (all losses in which they have failed to score more than 92 points), the Celtics have shot 35-84 (41.7%) vs Atlanta, 32-81 (39.5%) in Chicago, and a pathetic 31-89 (34.8%) against New Orleans last night.  Combined, that's a three game total of 98-254, just 38.6%.

The main culprits have been Jeff Green (14-40, 35%), Jordan Crawford (12-40, 30%), who I jinxed, and Jared Sullinger (9-35, 25.7%), who clearly is having serious trouble with that injured left hand and giant glove he's been wearing to protect it.

Now 13-20, Boston faces an absolutely brutal schedule over their next 12 games (pictured).  The way things are going I fully expect them to be 15-30 three week from now.

Friday, January 3, 2014

I think I jinxed Jordan Crawford

Back on December 11th I suggested on Celtics Life that fans should vote Jordan Crawford into the All-Star game.  The next day I wrote an article for Yahoo Sports making the case that Crawford was a legitimate All-Star candidate.  At the time Crawford was averaging 15.1 points, 6.1 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game as a starting point guard.  He was also committing just 2.2 turnovers per game, and leading the Eastern Conference with a 2.81 assist to turnover ratio.

Immediately after talking Crawford up, he proceeded to go 0-8 from the floor for just 2 points (along with 2 rebounds and 6 assists) in Boston's next game.  In the Celtics last 8 contests since writing my article his averages are down to 12.9 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds.  But the biggest difference is his turnovers, which have risen to 2.9 per game, lowering his assist/turnover ratio to a very pedestrian 1.87.

Crawford no longer looks much like an All-Star point guard, and I'm ready for Rondo to come back.  Of course Boston dropping 5 of their last 6 games doesn't help much either.  They have a brutal schedule ahead as well, and as I discussed on CelticsLife yesterday, it may soon be time to let the word "tanking" re-enter the discussion.

Also, take a look at this article I wrote for Yahoo about potential Celtics draft picks next summer.  Although the way things are going at the moment Boston may have a much better pick than I expected.

Saturday, December 28, 2013

"Andrew Bynum suspended by Cavs" is about the least surprising headline ever

Just before the Cavaliers were set to take on the Celtics at the Garden this afternoon, Cleveland announced that it had suspended center Andrew Bynum indefinitely for "conduct detrimental to the team."  Shortly afterwards Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski (who may be the most reliable NBA source there is) sent out this tweet:


If that sounds eerily familiar, there's good reason.  Over the summer when the Cavs signed Bynum I called him a "sneaky basketball hating genius" for manipulating them into a two-year $24 million contract, despite the fact that he sat out the previous season for no good reason (minor injuries he "couldn't" recover from), and once had a teammate say "I’ve never met another player in the league who likes basketball less.”

I also set the over/under on number of games Bynum would play this season at 35, with a clear bias towards the under.  At the moment the total stands at 24, and I like my chances.  The crazy thing is that Cleveland can decide to cut Bynum by January 7th and only pay him $6 million.  All he head had to do was suck it up and behave for another 10 days to earn the rest of his money.  Maybe he's not such a genius after all...

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Why do people think the Baltimore Ravens are a contender? They're going to struggle just to make the playoffs...

I've heard a lot of talk this week about the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens, how they can win their division and be a serious threat in the postseason.  The other day CSNNE's Gary Tanguay even said he thinks they are one of two favorites in the AFC (with Denver).  I'm not buying this at all, not for one second.

All of the hype is coming because of what they did last season -- getting hot down the stretch and winning the Super Bowl as a Wild Card team.  If anything I think that makes them less likely to go on another playoff run.  They already had their luck a year ago; it's called "regression to the mean."  It's also funny to me that the Ravens bandwagon is gaining so much momentum the week after they failed to score a touchdown.  Kicking a whole bunch of field goals isn't going to get them very far.

But the main reason I don't think anybody has to worry about Baltimore is because the odds of them making the postseason just aren't very good.  In order to take the AFC North they have to beat 10-4 New England tomorrow, and then win at 9-5 Cincinnati next week.  That is no easy task.  If they lose one (or two) they still have a shot at a Wild Card, but the 8-6 Dolphins finish against Buffalo and the Jets, and could easily win them both.

Regardless, I like the Patriots' chances tomorrow in Baltimore, even though the Ravens are hot (4 wins in a row culminating in that ridiculous 61 yard field goal "buzzer beater" pictured above) and the Pats are coming off a tough loss.  The NFL is a week to week league, full of ups and downs, highs and lows.  The pendulum is due to swing back in New England's favor.


Monday, December 16, 2013

Another Patriots game decided by randomness, which now accounts for 79% of their season

NOT a game winner... this time.
Watching Tom Brady try five times (an offside penalty gave them an extra chance) unsuccessfully to get the ball in the end zone in the final seconds yesterday, it was painfully obvious how much he could have used Rob Gronkowski.  But, if Danny Amendola makes that grab the Patriots still win anyway (off topic, Amendola had 10 catches for 131 yards this week, how did Wes Welker do?).  Or if they get a pass interference penalty on that throw to Michael Hoomanawanui (that could just as easily have been called as the one last week vs Cleveland) they win as well.

New England's last 5 games have been decided by 4 points or less, as have 9 of the 14 they've played all season.  Two more were within a touchdown, meaning 11 of 14 have been one score games; 79% of their outcomes could have changed had one play per contest happened/been officiated differently.  

The Pats (10-4) have had three relatively easy victories this year (23-3 vs Tampa, 27-17 vs Miami, and 55-31 vs Pittsburgh), with all of them coming at home.  For the season they are 7-4 in close games, 4-0 at home, and 3-4 on the road.  But the good news is that in each of their four losses, they've had a chance to win on their final possession.

If the Patriots keep taking care of business at home and giving themselves an opportunity at the end on the road, maybe they'll make the play/get the call or maybe they won't, but can you really ask for anything more?


Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Why I'm not too pissed about the Patriots vs Panthers pathetic pass interference play

First off, I think Rob Gronkowski had zero chance of actually catching that ball.  But I do think he was close enough that he might have been able to get involved in the play with Robert Lester, and then who knows what happens?  Maybe the ball would have popped up in the air and somebody else might have caught it?  However Gronk never got that chance, because Luke Kuechly had already interfered with him.  That's a penalty.

Hmm...

But I'm honestly not that upset about it, because I think last night's game will make no difference to the 7-3 Patriots in the long run.  In all likelihood, whoever wins the West (Denver or Kansas City, both 9-1) is getting the AFC's #1 seed.  After the Broncos next week, New England's schedule gets a lot easier (at Houston, Cleveland, at Miami, at Baltimore, and home vs Buffalo).  They should finish 12-4 or 11-5, and probably still end up with the 2nd seed in the conference.  Who might they be afraid of?  The 7-3 Colts?  Maybe.  The 7-4 Bengals?  Probably not.  Chances are the Pats will be #2 overall regardless of whether they won or lost last night (even if they have a worse record than the AFC West's second place team, by winning their division they'd still get the higher seed and home field advantage).  Plus, in recent history there has been no correlation between having a top seed and winning the Super Bowl.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Guaranteed to get you pumped for World Series Game 6 tonight, + a bold prediction


If you've got 14 extra minutes available today to get excited about the Red Sox, I highly recommend watching all four of these clips.  If you don't have that much time just skip down to the last one (but then you'll be missing out for sure).













And here is my very bold prediction:


Drew has been nothing short of spectacular defensively, in fact I'd argue it's been worth having him in there just for that alone.  But at the plate he's 1-15 (.067) in the World Series, and incredibly just 4-50 (.080) in the playoffs. He's a much better hitter than that.  During the regular season Drew batted .253 (112-442).  Laws of physics, probability, and reason suggest he's got to hit eventually.  I think it's going to happen, and in a big spot.  He showed signs of life in consecutive at bats in Game 5; first with a near home run to right center in the 5th and then a huge walk during the go-ahead rally in the 7th.  His big brother JD hit what's been dubbed the $14 million grand slam (the only thing he did to earn his money during the first season of 5 year $70 million contract) to help the Sox rally form a 3-1 series deficit in the 2007 ALCS vs Cleveland.  I'm betting it runs in the family.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

The fact that the Red Sox are up 2-1 in this ALCS is absolutely mind boggling

Napoli homers off Verlander, but Tazawa K's Cabrera. Wow.
The Detroit Tigers have carried no-hitters for 8.1, 5.2, and 5.1 innings of each of the first three ALCS games respectively.  Any one of those just on it's own would be extremely impressive.  Their starting pitcher's average stat lines are as follows: 7 innings, 2 hits, 0.67 runs, and 11.67 strikeouts.  I don't recall ever seeing teammates put together three such dominant starts in a row.

For the series the Red Sox are hitting a collective .133 (12 for 90), the lowest team batting average through three League Championship Series games in MLB history (amazingly breaking the record the Cardinals set the day before at .134, while also leading 2-1).  In addition the Sox have struck out a total of 43 times, 14.33 per game.  Looking at these numbers you'd assume Detroit had won every game so far, or maybe at worst case led 2-1.

Yet somehow the Tigers trail 2-1.  Mike Napoli was 0-6 with 6 K's in the series before his 7th inning solo shot that was the only run scored last night.  David Ortiz was 0-6 with 4 K's before his grand slam in the 8th on Sunday.  Meanwhile two of the games best hitters, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, struck out back-back with runners at 1st and 3rd to end the Detroit 8th yesterday.  The beard magic continues, and hopefully this all means Boston is due for an early offensive explosion tonight.


Friday, September 27, 2013

The absurdity of Robinson Cano asking for a 10 year $305 million contract

That's the story ESPN's Buster Olney reported yesterday.  Now obviously when free agents sign new contracts they negotiate, so clearly Cano is starting with a ridiculous number to help swing the process in his favor.  Here's just how ridiculous it is:

  1. It would be the largest deal in baseball history.  Cano is a really good player, but he shouldn't be that guy.  Dustin Pedroia just took 8 years for $110 million, and it's obnoxious of Cano to think he's worth more than double what Pedroia is.
  2. Currently the most expensive contract ever is Alex Rodriguez's 10 years at $275 million, of which he still has four more years left to go.  The Yankees were hoping he'd get a lifetime ban for steroids to help get them out of that one.
  3. If that's not bad enough, look at the ten year deal Albert Pujols just signed, of which he still has 8 more to go at roughly $24 mil per year.  The 32 year old Pujols hit .258 with 17 home runs and 64 RBI's this season; have fun paying him when he's 40 Anaheim.
  4. Cano is 30, and a 10 year deal would probably land whoever signed him in the same boat as the Yankees with ARod and the Angels with Pujols, and that is not a boat anyone should ever want to be in again.
  5. Why ask for three hundred and five million?  Seriously?  That extra 5 just makes it all the more asinine.


Tuesday, September 24, 2013

I wonder how the Nationals feel today about their Stephen Strasburg decision last year?

The Pittsburgh Pirates locked up a Wild Card spot last night, ending a 20 year postseason drought (the 3rd longest in MLB history).  With the Reds also clinching as well (both teams could still overtake St. Louis for the NL Central crown), the Nationals were officially eliminated from playoff contention.

But, at least Washington still has a healthy Stephen Strasburg to make his final start of the year against the Diamondbacks on Friday.  Unfortunately for them it's going to be totally meaningless.  So far that's the reward they get for shutting Strasburg down in September of last year in order to save him for the future.  They were 85-53 at the time, with the best record in baseball.  The Nationals ended up losing their opening playoff series without their ace, and who knows when or if they'll ever another such opportunity to win it all.

And guess what else is funny?  Last season Strasburg made 28 starts before the team elected to voluntarily stop using him in order to preserve his health.  This year injuries have held him to just 29.


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