Showing posts with label really good stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label really good stats. Show all posts

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Awesome Old Video Clip of the Week: David Ortiz's first home run with the Red Sox

I don't even know where to begin to attempt to write some sort of David Ortiz career retrospective, so on the day of his last regular-season game, I'll just go with this:

In his sixth season with the Twins, a 26-year-old Ortiz hit 20 homers and drove in 75 runs in only 412 at-bats, but Minnesota released him anyway in the fall of 2002.

Ortiz's Boston career began as a platoon player, splitting time with Jeremy Giambi.  Big Papi's first Red Sox home run, the 59th of his career, didn't come until April 27, 2003, in Boston's 25th game of the season:



Ha, remember J-Lo and Ben Affleck?  They were the story that day in Anaheim--nobody on the planet could've guessed Ortiz would slug another 482 homers in a Sox uniform (and 17 more in the playoffs).  Ortiz didn't go yard again until May 24th of that year, game No. 48.  In fact, following a 6-4 win over the Tigers on June 26, Ortiz had a total of just three home runs for the 45-32 Red Sox.

However, after finally winning the full-time DH job, Papi blasted 28 dingers over Boston's last 85 games in 2003 (for a total of 31 in 448 at-bats), and the rest is history.


Thursday, August 25, 2016

The best team in the American League has been outscored on the season?


As I write this, the Texas Rangers own the No. 1 record in the American League at 74-53, second in all of baseball behind the Chicago Cubs (81-45).  The Rangers have scored 588 runs this year.  They've given up 589.  Texas' run differential is -1, meaning they likely should be a .500 team.

Run differential isn't a perfect stat, but it's usually a good indicator of success (which is why I'm confident the Red Sox are better than the Orioles).  For example, in the National League the standings for all three divisions wouldn't even change if the teams were ranked by scoring differential instead of wins and losses.

Look at the placement of the red and green numbers in the combined AL standings pictured above--there's one clear anomaly.  Don't be surprised if the Rangers fade down the stretch, it's weird for them to be where they are in the first place.


Tuesday, August 16, 2016

If you believe in run differential, the Red Sox are much better than the Orioles

The Red Sox (65-52) head to Baltimore tonight to face the Orioles (66-51) with first place in the American League East on the line (Toronto is also tied for first at 67-52).

Statistically speaking, it shouldn't be this way.  Boston is a better team than Baltimore--a lot better, in fact.  For the season, the Sox have outscored their opponents by 104 runs (tied with Cleveland for first in the American League), an average of 0.89 per game.  By comparison, the O's have only plated 38 more runs than their opposition (sixth in the AL) an average of 0.32 per game.  The Red Sox's average margin of victory is nearly triple what Baltimore's is, and more than half a run per game higher.  Considering AL teams are averaging 4.5 total runs per game this season, a half-run difference in margin of victory is an enormous amount.

Here's a quick NBA comparison: The Celtics went 48-34 last year while outscoring their opponents by 3.2 points per game.  The NBA-champion Cavaliers (57-25) won by 6.0 PPG.  In theory, the gap between the Red Sox and Orioles is greater than the one between the Cavs and Celtics.

Baltimore should fade in the AL East race, with Boston battling the Blue Jays (who are +87 in total runs, 0.73 per game) for the division title.


Friday, August 5, 2016

Did you know Red Sox infielder Aaron Hill is responsible for one of the most unlikely feats in MLB history?


When the Red Sox traded for veteran infielder Aaron Hill last month, I completely forgot that he was the Aaron Hill--that is until a few days ago when I stumbled across a blog I wrote four years ago.

On June 18, 2012, Hill hit for the cycle--something most ball players are never able to accomplish.  Then, on June 29, only 11 days later, he did it again.  That's basically the equivalent of a pitcher throwing no-hitters in two out of three starts.  There's much more in my post from 2012 about how unlikely Hill's pair of cycles were.

Just last week, Sox pitcher Steven Wright did something that may be even more improbable:


Both of these remind me of another piece from the very early days of LucidSportsFan.com:

J.D. Drew had the chance to set the most unbreakable record in the history of any sport ever

(Apologies the for lack of capital letters and poor formatting.)


Sunday, June 19, 2016

So much history on the line in the biggest NBA game in over 30 years, maybe ever

The NBA Finals don't give us winner-take-all Game 7s that often--this will be just the fifth in the past 28 years.  Michael Jordan never even played in one.

Tonight's features the two biggest stars in the league, LeBron James and Stephen Curry.  The last time anything like that happened in a one-game showdown for the title was on June 12, 1984, when Larry Bird's Celtics knocked off Magic Johnson's Lakers in the first Finals meeting between the two rivals.  Of course, Magic's Lakers had just recently won it all in 1982, as had Bird's Celtics in 1981.  None of this type of stuff was on the line:

- A Warriors victory makes them arguably the greatest team ever, having won a record 73 games in the regular season.

- A Cavaliers victory makes them the first team ever to win a Finals after being down 3-1, gives the franchise its first NBA championship and the city of Cleveland its first major title in 51+ years, vindicates LeBron for his whole "going back home to win one for the 'Land" thing and (gulp) puts him in the conversation with MJ for greatest player ever (I can't even believe I just said that), in part because he brought his club back from 3-1 against the best regular-season squad of all time while doing this:


That's 30.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 2.7 steals and 2.2 blocks per game--a legendary Finals performance.  Unless his team loses, in which case it becomes an afterthought.

Take a look back at all the Game 7s in Finals history.  It's possible there was a bigger one in the 1950s or 60s, but I doubt it.


Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Could David Ortiz break the all-time records for doubles and extra base hits? (they're both 85+ years old too)


This tweet came after David Ortiz's 14th home run of the season yesterday (pictured):


That's pretty good, right?

In addition to his 14 home runs, the 40-year-old (and AL MVP?) Ortiz has 23 doubles and one triple through the Red Sox first 51 games (of which he's played in only 45--that's an absurd 38 extra-base hits in 45 games).  He's on a pace to get 121 extra-base hits this year, which would be two more than the all-time record of 119 set by some guy named Babe Ruth in 1921.

Big Papi is also hitting doubles at a rate that translates to 73 for the full season.  The major league record is 67, by Earl Web in 1931.



Monday, May 23, 2016

Xander Bogaerts has the top batting average in the AL, is on pace for 232 hits this season

The Red Sox have homered in a team-record 22 straight games.  Jackie Bradley Jr. own's a 27-game hitting streak (he's also first in the American League with a .413 on-base percentage), and 40-year-old David Ortiz is playing like the MVP.

Amongst all of this, it's easy to lose track of Xander Bogaerts' accomplishments.  Bogaerts has hit in 16 straight contests himself, and is leading the league in batting (pictured).

However, even more impressive is the fact that Bogaerts has a major-league-best 63 hits through 44 games, five more than anyone else in the AL.  At that pace, Boston's shortstop could finish the year with 232.  That'd be the most hits in an MLB season since Ichiro Suzuki's 238 in 2007.  The last guy besides Ichiro (who did it three times) to record that many hits was Darin Erstad (240) in 2000, and the last Red Sox player to do it was Wade Boggs (also 240) in 1985.


Saturday, May 14, 2016

The 40-year-old allegedly retiring David Ortiz is the American League MVP so far

In the Red Sox's 6-5 extra-inning win this afternoon, David Ortiz tied the game with a two-out triple in the ninth, then won it in his next at-bat with a double in the 11th--again with two outs (not to mention he also homered back in the third inning).  The walk-off hit was the 600th double of his career, which put Big Papi in some pretty exclusive company:


The greatest designated hitter of all time is 40 years old and supposedly retiring at the end of the season.  The thing is, through 37 games (nearly 25 percent of the season) for the 23-14 Red Sox, Ortiz is most likely the MVP of the American League.

Here are some of Ortiz's stats, followed by where each ranks in the AL:

Batting average: .320 (10th)
Doubles: 16 (2nd)
Home runs: 10 (4th, tied)
RBI: 33 (1st, tied)
On-base percentage: .405 (4th, tied)
Slugging percentage: .695 (1st)
OPS (on-base plus slugging): 1.101 (1st)

There are three Potential American League MVP candidates at the moment:

David Ortiz, Red Sox (23-14): .320, 16 2B, 10 HR, 33 RBI, .405 OBP, .695 SLG, 1.101 OPS
Manny Machado, Orioles (22-12): .350, 15 2B, 10 HR, 23 RBI, .405 OBP, .671 SLG, 1.077 OPS
Robinson Cano, Mariners (21-14): .299, 8 2B, 12 HR, 33 RBI, .344 OBP, .599 SLG, .943 OPS

Ortiz has a big lead over Machado in RBI, a much higher average and on-base percentage than Cano, and is ahead of both of them in slugging and OPS.  If the award was chosen today, he'd be the guy.

Big Papi sent this tweet the other day when Stephen Curry unanimously won the NBA MVP:


The way things are going, Curry may not be the only 2016 MVP in that picture.



Thursday, May 12, 2016

Crazy stats for Red Sox's dominant offense, surprisingly led by Jackie Bradley Jr.


At 21-13, the Red Sox have the same record through 34 games that the 2013 World Series champs did.  They're doing it with offense.  Lots of offense.  Boston just swept a three-game series from the A's by the scores of 14-7, 13-5 and 13-3.


The Sox have scored 196 total runs, 30 more than any other American League team (the Cubs lead the NL with 196 as well).  Boston's .293 team batting average is 15 points higher than the next best in MLB, the Pirates' .278.  It shows in the individual AL leaders as well:


Perhaps the best way to sum it up is to point out that Jackie Bradley Jr. (pictured), who's tied for eighth in the league in batting with David Ortiz and owns the second longest hitting streak in baseball this season (17 games), is Boston's No. 9 hitter.

This Vine doesn't relate to any of the above stats in particular, but it's generally relevant and I just think it's cool:




Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Stephen Curry makes the unbelievable believable

Earlier today, Stephen Curry became the first unanimous MVP in NBA history:


However, what Curry did last night may be even more impressive (unfortunately much of the country was asleep long before his overtime heroics took place around 1:30 a.m. Eastern).  In his first game back from a knee injury, the plan was for Curry to play roughly 25 minutes off the bench.

The Warriors had just two points halfway through the first quarter, and they trailed Portland 16-2 when Steph checked in at the 5:58 mark.

His presence on the floor helped rally his ballclub, but the reigning-MVP was noticeably rusty.  He air-balled his first three-pointer, badly.  In fact, Curry missed his first nine three-point attempts.  When backup point guard Shaun Livingston (who started in Curry's place) was ejected for arguing with the referee late in the second quarter, the game plan for limiting Steph's minutes went out the window (he ended up logging 37).

Curry finally connected on his first three of the night with just 4:35 to go in regulation to put his club up 103-100.  Before that bucket, he had 17 points on 8-for-20 shooting (0-of-9 from deep) through the game's first 43+ minutes.  Here's what Steph did over the last 9:35 of regulation and overtime: 23 points on 8-for-12 shooting, 5-of-7 from beyond the arc (some of which were absolutely ridiculous, see the clip below).  As soon as he hit that first trey, Curry was back:


He finished with 40 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in Golden State's 132-125 OT victory.  In addition to posting the most prolific overtime period of all time (17 points)--regular season or playoffs--Curry also accomplished each of the following:

- First player other than LeBron James with a 40-9-8 stat line in the playoffs since Shaquille O'Neal in 2002.
- First player in the Basketball-Reference database (which goes back to 1984) to put up those numbers in the postseason off the bench.
- Just the second player since 1984 to score 40 as a reserve in a playoff game (along with Nick Van Exel in 2003).

Now here's why I titled this post the way I did: While watching the end of the fourth quarter and OT, nothing Curry did surprised me.  Once he got hot, I legitimately expected all of his bombs to drop.

No one has ever been as good at basketball as Steph Curry is right now.  He makes the unbelievable believable.


Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Pablo Sandoval's $17.6 million walk

Yesterday the news broke that Pablo Sandoval will have shoulder surgery and likely miss the rest of the season.  Here are his final 2016 stats, for which the Red Sox will pay him $17.6 million:

3 games, 6 at-bats, 0 runs, 0 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, .000 batting average and 1 error

Maybe someday we'll refer to Sandoval's fateful April 9 plate appearance in the 7th inning of an 8-4 Boston win as "the $17.6 million walk."

Through two years (and $35.2 million) with the Red Sox, the third baseman's total numbers are as follows:

129 games, 476 at-bats, 43 runs, 115 hits, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, 47 runs batted in, 26 walks, 77 strikeouts, .242 batting average, .290 on-base percentage and .361 slugging percentage

That works out to roughly $306,000 per hit, or $749,000 per RBI.  Boston will also pay Sandoval an average of just under $18.3 million for 2017, 2018 and 2019.  This seems like a good time to mention an article I wrote for Bleacher Report 18 months ago:

Boston Red Sox: The Case Against Signing Pablo Sandoval

The video to accompany the above belt-busting photo:


Thursday, April 21, 2016

It's insane how bad Andre Drummond is at free-throw shooting


Pistons center Andre Drummond connected on 35.5 percent of his free throws this season, the lowest percentage in NBA history among qualified candidates.  On Wednesday in Cleveland, Drummond made four of 16 foul shots.

Amazingly, this wasn't even his most embarrassing trip to the line that night:





On another occasion, Drummond's first of two attempts hit the backboard before caroming off the front rim, while his second was an air-ball short and to the left.

I assumed the 4-for-16 showing would be the worst of all time in playoffs, but it's not--Wilt Chamberlain once went 2-of-17 from the charity stripe in a postseason game.


Thursday, April 14, 2016

Best stats from crazy NBA final night: Kobe, Curry, Klay, Isaiah and more


I'll start with Kobe Bryant, who scored 60 points in his final game.  On the other end of the spectrum, the Miami Heat put up five points in the third period against the Celtics, their worst quarter in franchise history.  The combination of the two led to this:


Kobe carried the Lakers to a spectacular come-from-behind 101-96 win over the Jazz.  As a team, L.A. had 85 field goal attempts--50 of them (59%) belonged to Kobe (even the Celtics fan in me has to admit it was great to watch though).  Here's the complete list on record of NBA players who've taken 50 shots in one game:

1. Kobe Bryant

Back to Celtics-Heat, Boston held Miami to nine points during a 16-minute stretch from late in the first half through the beginning of the fourth quarter (I wrote much more on this at CelticsLife.com):


In 1/3 of the game, the Heat had nine points--a pace for 27 over a full contest.

Isaiah Thomas' 21 points and six assists gave him 1,823 and 509 for the season:


Thomas actually eclipsed the 1,800/500 mark Monday, becoming the third Celtics player ever to accomplish the feat (along with Larry Bird and John Havlicek).

Out in Oakland last night, the Warriors continued to drain three's at an insane pace.  Not only did Steph Curry connect on his 400th triple of the season (his total of 402 shattered his old record by 41%--that'd be like if the year after Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs Barry Bonds hit 98), his teammate Klay Thompson also finished with the third-most threes in league history.

Most 3-pointers in one season, all time:
Stephen Curry - 402, this year
Stephen Curry - 286, last year
Klay Thompson - 276, also this year

Oh yeah, and the Warriors won an NBA-record 73 games.  There aren't any great stats in here, but this Taiwanese animation video is hysterical:




Sunday, April 10, 2016

Notable records from Golden State Warriors win No. 72

After the Celtics ruined the Warriors quest for a perfect home season a little more than a week ago, Golden State returned the favor to San Antonio on Sunday and ended the Spurs chance to get to 41-0 in their own building (as well as the possibility of San Antonio going unbeaten at home in both the regular season and playoffs and not winning the NBA title).

Oddly enough, in halting the Spurs' bid to eclipse the 1985-86 Celtics' 40-1 mark at home, Golden State actually set a new record by finishing 34-7 on the road, one game better than the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (33-8) did.  It was coincidentally also win No. 72 for the Warriors, who will try to knock that same Bulls squad out of the history books by getting a 73rd victory on Wednesday (although Chicago might've won more if the previous record hadn't been only 69).

With a win in its 81st game, Golden State also guaranteed that it will go the entire regular season without ever losing back-to-back contests, an NBA first.  Not only that, but according to ESPN Stats & Info the Warriors will become the first team never to lose twice to one opponent.

In addition, Klay Thompson hit his 272nd three-pointer of the season on Sunday, tying for the third-most in league history.  Teammate Steph Curry is the only player ever to make more.


Monday, March 28, 2016

Klay Thompson will hit more 3-pointers this season than anyone besides his teammate Steph Curry ever has

Before 2015-16 began, the all-time record for most three-pointers in an NBA season was 286, set by Steph Curry last year (he also held the previous mark, 272 in 2012-13).  Curry is shattering his record this season, having already drilled 350 threes with nine games to go.

The crazy thing is, his teammate Klay Thompson might also break the old record.  Thompson has 253 triples so far, and is averaging 3.6 per game.  He'll need to connect on roughly 3.8 treys per contest to make 34 more and finish with 287.

There's a decent chance the two most prolific three-point shooting seasons in league history might both be happening right now in the same Golden State Warriors backcourt.

Even if Thompson doesn't surpass Curry's number from last year, he's almost certain to make more threes than the "non-Curry" record--269 by Ray Allen in 2005-06.  Thompson needs slightly fewer than two per game from here on out to reach 270 and hit more three-pointers than anyone besides his legendary teammate ever has.


Wednesday, March 9, 2016

I discovered a pretty cool NBA stat the other day

Isaiah Thomas didn't commit a single turnover in the Celtics' 120-103 loss in Cleveland on Saturday.  It was the third straight game he'd played without a turnover.  When that came to my attention, I began to wonder how rare a streak that was for somebody who has such an enormous role in his team's offense.

There's no easy way to look that up, unless you have another stat to compare it to.  Thomas also scored at least 27 points in all three of his turnover-free games, so that gave me a good number to cross-reference with.

I did a search on Basketball-Reference.com for most consecutive games where a player scored 27 or more points with zero turnovers, and the results were quite surprising: The NBA didn't start recording turnovers as an official stat until the 1977-78 season and Basketball-Reference only keeps track of them as far back as 1983-84.  But in the past 32+ years, Michael Jordan is the only player to match Isaiah's feat, over a three-game span in February of 1991.

I posted about all of this on CelticsLife Monday.  I also sent the stat to a few other Celtics media people I thought might find in interesting.  Yesterday, the Celtics official website wrote about it:


The NBA.com article links to my original tweet as the source.

Celtics.com featured it again today as well:


Toucher and Rich of 98.5 The Sports Hub also brought it up on their show this morning while talking to CSNNE Celtics play-by-play man Mike Gorman (at the 25-minute mark):





UPDATE:

Kyle Draper, Chris Mannix and Brian Scalabrine discussed it during the Celtics pregame show on CSNNE tonight.



UPDATE #2:

Towards the end of the second quarter, CSNNE announced the "Chevy Malibu Unexpected Stat" of the night:


I guess I should expect to see my new Chevy Malibu parked outside in the morning?


UPDATE #3:

Two days later:
Sorry Isaiah, my bad.


Monday, March 7, 2016

Whether or not Warriors break Bulls' record will have nothing to do with Golden State's remaining schedule

Golden State hasn't lost to any of these teams.
The Golden State Warriors are 55-6 (.902), which has them on pace to finish 74-8.  That would be two games better than the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who's 72-10 (.878) record is the greatest in NBA history.  Golden State is currently one game ahead of where those Bulls were (54-7) through 61 contests.

A few weeks ago, I listened to a Bill Simmons podcast in which he closely examined the Warriors' remaining schedule and tried to pick out their toughest games in an effort to guess whether or not they might break Chicago's record.  I'm sure that's something a lot of people have been doing lately.

The thing is, it doesn't matter who the Warriors plays from here on out--good teams are not a problem for them.  Their sixth defeat of the season came Sunday, against the now 13-51 Lakers.  Golden State's other five losses are to Denver (25-38), Milwaukee (26-38), Detroit (32-31) Portland (33-31) and Dallas (also 33-31).

The Warriors are a combined 24-0 against the next 12 best teams in the league (pictured).  They may or may not surpass the Bulls' historic mark, but a tough schedule won't be an issue.


RELATED:
No one has ever been better at basketball than Steph Curry is right now
The Spurs might go undefeated at home and not win the NBA championship


Friday, March 4, 2016

The Spurs might go undefeated at home and not win the NBA championship

The 1985-86 Boston Celtics went 50-1 at home (40-1 in the regular season and 10-0 in the playoffs) on their way to an NBA title.  It's the best home record in league history.

The 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs are currently 29-0 in their own building.  They're 52-9 overall, an .852 winning percentage that puts them on pace to finish 70-12, which would be the second-best record of all time (behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls who played .878 ball and went 72-10).

Unfortunately for the Spurs, their near-record pace is 3.5 games behind the insanely good Steph Curry and the 55-5 (.917) Golden State Warriors.  Like San Antonio, Golden State is also undefeated at home this year (26-0).  Not only is there a chance the Spurs will post a better record than all but one team in NBA history and still enter the playoffs as major underdogs in their own conference, there's also a possibility San Antonio may win every home game it plays all season and fail to take home the title.

The Spurs could make it all the way to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals vs. the Warriors (and lose) without dropping a single home contest.  Depending on how many road wins they get in the early rounds, that scenario might leave them anywhere between 48-0 and 52-0 in San Antonio.

Golden State can also break Boston's 50-1 mark, and has the potential to end up from 49-0 to 57-0 at home.  The Celtics' record is in jeopardy either way, but the prospect of the Spurs having a perfect home season and not winning a championship is somewhat mind-boggling.



Thursday, January 14, 2016

A 12-4 record is great for most NFL teams, but average for the Patriots

The Patriots finished 2015 at 12-4.  It's the fourth straight 12-4 regular season campaign for New England.  On the right is the complete list of Pats records since 2001, the year Tom Brady took over as starting quarterback.

For the past 15 seasons, 12-4 is the average record for the Patriots--slightly below average actually, considering the numbers work out to 12.13 wins and 3.87 losses per year.

In 2015, New England's 12-4 mark was good enough to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  According to My Top Sportsbooks, the Pats have 6/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, tied with the Panthers for second-best after the Cardinals at 5/1 (quick sidebar: Brady is also the top bet of any player at the moment to win the Super Bowl MVP at 15/1, just ahead of Carolina quarterback Cam Newton at 18/1 and Arizona QB Carson Palmer at 20/1).

Most teams would be thrilled to be where New England is at the moment, but for the Patriots it's just business as usual--for the last decade-and-a-half.

Here's where things get crazy: Over the 15-year span that the Pats have averaged slightly more than 12 regular-season wins, there are seven NFL franchises that have never won 12 games: Miami, New York (Jets), Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Washington and Detroit.  Two more clubs, Arizona and Cincinnati, just won 12 for the first time since 2001 this year.


Tuesday, December 22, 2015

I bet you can't name the last two Celtics players to have 10+ assists in the same game?

In addition to Kevin Garnett's potential farewell to Boston, something else highly unusual occurred at the TD Garden last night.  Isaiah Thomas Thomas dished out 12 assists, while Evan Turner distributed another 10 of his own.

When they both had nine midway through the fourth quarter, I began to wonder how rare it was to see a pair of teammates each record double-digit assists in the same game.  I posed the question to two of my favorite stats guys, former colleague Adam Lowenstein, and Celtics radio play-by-play man Sean Grande:


They each responded with the answer.  It hadn't happened in more than 18 years:


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